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天然气工业 2003, Vol. 23 (5) :120 -123 <<-上一篇 下一篇 ->>
引用: 周志斌,四川盆地天然气供求预测和市场展望[J].天然气工业,2003,23(5):120-123
四川盆地天然气供求预测和市场展望
周志斌
中国石油西南油气田分公司
Gas Supply-Demand Prediction and Market Prospect in Sichuan Basin
Zhou Zhibin
PCL Southwest Oil & Gas Field Subsidiary
全文:     原文
摘要: 2002年底中国四川盆地天然气累计探明储量已达7 600×108m3,天然气年产量却只有106×108m3,其中商品气为101×108m3,不能满足市场需求.究其原因是,四川盆地天然气大多高含硫,而脱硫厂建设又滞后.文章通过分析四川盆地所产天然气在四川、重庆、云南、贵州4省市的地区和行业消费结构,以及经济增长对天然气的需求状况,指出了未来几年四川盆地天然气供需基本形势:建材、CNG、民用用气将继续保持增长势头,而甲醇生产和发电用气有很大潜在市场,化肥的尿素生产用气则存在下降的可能.但从整个天然气供需态势看,2005年前天然气产量的增长将低于需求量的增长,市场将继续保持供不应求的局面.随着脱硫厂从2005年开始陆续建成投产,天然气的供需矛盾将会得以缓解.
关键词预测 市场 需求 供应 天然气 四川盆地
Abstract: The gas cumulate proved reserves had reached to 7 600×108m by the end of 2002 in Sichuan Basin. But the gas producti on was only 106×108m/a,the marketable gas was 101×108m,which can't meet the market demand.The reason is the most of gas produced from Sichuan Basin contains sulfur,and the construction of desulfuration plants delays.Analyzing the regional and industrial consuming configuration of the gas produced from Sichuan Basin in Sichuan,Chongqing,Yunnan,and Guizhou,and the gas demand along with economic growth,the article states the basic situation of gas demand in a few coming years;The increasing momentum will be kept for the fields of building materials,CNG,residential use,etc.There is great market potential in the fields of methanol producing and power generating.The demand may decrease for carbamide producing.But in view of gas supply-demand situation,the gas production increase will always be lower than the gas demand increase,so the gas market will remain the situation,i.e.the demand exceeds the supply before 2005.Then,the contradiction of gas supply-demand will be relieved as the desulfuration plants are set up and put into operation one by one after 2005.
Keywords: Prediction Market Demand Supply Natural gas Sichuan Basin
收稿日期:2003-03-06     
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